Temporary layoff schemes no cure-all in slow COVID recovery

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Temporary unemployment schemes operating across Europe could struggle to save the jobs of leisure and travel sector workers facing drawn-out or partial recoveries from the COVID-19 pandemic, even if they help industries that rebound quickly.

FILE PHOTO: Closed restaurants are seen in the deserted old town of Bruges during the lockdown imposed by the Belgian government to slow down the coronavirus disease spread, Belgium April 21, 2020. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir/File Photo

The schemes have spread far wider and faster than during the last major shock, the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The head of Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis gave an unsettling warning on Friday that any vaccine to fight the new coronavirus will not be ready for use for at least two years. Even with the scheme, Britain’s unemployment rate is set to more than double to 10% in the second quarter.

Of those, a quarter worked in hotels, cafes and restaurants and almost half in the culture and recreation sector. A further 75,000 self-employed people believed they were likely to go under. Gregory Claeys, senior fellow at economic think-tank Bruegel, says temporary layoff schemes work well for sectors of the economy that can bounce back well, such as the auto industry, which is resuming operations. However, the tourism or entertainment sectors did not look set for a V-shaped recovery. Temporary layoffs could only go so far, he said.

 

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