Bank of Spain headquarters in Madrid. Picture: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
“The slower acceleration in 2020 than our forecast means a worse starting point for growth in 2021,” Oscar Arce, chief economist at the Bank of Spain, told a news conference. The forecast is based on a scenario of smaller localised outbreaks and another one of a wider lockdown. The bank now expects the economy to contract up to 12.6% in 2020, which compares to its previous central estimate of 11.6% in June.“The third quarter has not been buoyant, we have gone from more to less. ... We see more downside risks of ending up worse than the economic forecast interval,” Arce said, naming a no-deal Brexit as one of the key risks.
“The data on foreign travellers offers a Dantesque view,” Arce said. Tourist arrivals began to decline again in early August due to stricter travel rules abroad.