Not leaving on a jet plane: Oil rebound hinges on return of international flights

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Jet fuel consumption remains the hardest hit section of the global oil market as passengers avoid air travel as a result of the pandemic and government travel restrictions

The specific problems of the jet market explain why refinery margins for closely related distillates such as diesel are being hit much harder than benchmark oil prices.

So an upturn in jet consumption and with it distillate margins and crude oil prices depends on one or more of three factors: Early deployment of an effective COVID-19 vaccine; alternative methods of infection control ; or lifting air travel restrictions with or without a vaccine.Quarantines and other infection controls have mostly been imposed on a national, or occasionally continental basis, and on potentially infective passengers rather than manufactured products.

In Hong Kong, which has adopted some of the strictest quarantine requirements, air cargo volumes were down just 2 per cent in August from a year earlier while passenger numbers, excluding transit passengers, were down 99 per cent. By contrast, Britain’s Heathrow airport reported passenger numbers were down by 69 per cent in August for domestic and short-haul flights within Europe and down by 92 per cent for long-haul flights outside Europe. Sydney Airport said its passenger numbers dropped 56 per cent in the six months to June 30.

But it has been one of the fastest-growing sections of the market over the last decade, with consumption growing by almost 2.7 per cent a year between 2009 and 2019, compared with 1.6 per cent for all petroleum products. The pandemic-driven slump in aviation, especially fuel-hungry long-haul passenger aviation, has cut jet consumption by more than half.Even with its domestic market, jet fuel consumption in the US is still down by more than 55 per cent compared with year-ago levels, according to weekly estimates from the US energy information administration.Jet fuel, with strict quality specifications, is normally a premium product and makes a big contribution to refinery margins and profitability.

 

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The earth can breathe again.

Wow the air is clean these days.

Passengers avoid air travel? Not really. Governments stop air travel because they don't understand how to manage Covid19 yet without using the shotgun approach.

It will last longer as they do not appear to be developing renewable powered craft

kuku27 This is not man made but demands of situation

💔

Excellent

Ah well

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