Picture: 123RF/Jaromir Chalabala
In just the past week, the optimism that took the Bloomberg World Airlines index to the highest since the start of the pandemic has evaporated. European carriers especially have felt the gloom that has set in because of rising cases and fresh lockdowns. Leisure-focused companies such as TUI and Ryanair usually use the first three months of the year taking summer bookings, giving them a cash stockpile to work with as they gear up operations.
While 45 airlines failed in 2020, many more have been hanging on in hopes of an imminent revival of leisure markets, Hatcher said. That is looking less likely as the year develops, with the Airports Council International on Thursday forecasting global passenger traffic will remain almost 50% below usual levels this year.
Discount carriers such as Ryanair, EasyJet and Wizz Air Holdings have strong liquidity positions and easy options for boosting reserves through aircraft sale-and-leaseback deals if necessary. Major Latin American carriers including LatAm Airlines Group, Avianca Holdings and Grupo Aeromexico that secured US Chapter 11 protection for their main businesses in the absence of state bailouts at home are likely to seek extensions if cash flows fail to revive, Hatcher said.IBA anticipates moves to rationalise supply in Asia, where aircraft order books remain bloated, especially in Southeast Asia and India, and airline failures have been limited.
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