THE recovery of global tourism remains on track, with an estimated 235 million traveling internationally in the first three months of the year, or about 80 percent of prepandemic levels in the same reference period.
Per the UNWTO’s second World Tourism Barometer, the Middle East was the only region that surpassed its prepandemic international tourist arrivals, growing by 15 percent in the first quarter of the year versus the same period in 2019. This was followed by Europe, which recovered 90 percent of prepandemic levels, Africa , and the Americas .
If arrivals from China strengthen, the Philippines could be looking at inbound arrivals of 5.8 million this year, in a medium scenario under the just-approved National Tourism Development Plan for 2023-2028. Without the strength of the Chinese market, the Department of Tourism has conservatively stuck to its baseline scenario projection of 4.8 million inbound arrivals this year.
Under the NTDP, total inbound arrivals in 2028—the last year of the Marcos Jr. administration—are projected to reach 11.5 million under the baseline scenario, 12.6 million , or 13.5 million .THE medium and upside scenarios, “reflect assessments of how successfully the world is able to exit the pandemic, manage the impact of the Ukraine conflict on global markets and shifting supply chains, and the degree of reopening of China and other major markets.