in places like the Niger Delta in Nigeria. The global transition to clean energy sources may also lead to future financial losses.
The industry is subject to price fluctuations in global markets, making economies heavily invested in them vulnerable to sudden price shocks. Even if the future of oil revenues was guaranteed, governments in fragile or weakly institutionalised contexts tend to become over-reliant on oil rents at the expense of investing in broad-based economic growth. Oil rents also typically enable state repression of dissenting voices or the co-optation of opposition parties.
Given that Mana Pools is such an important environmental region and already supports sustainable job creation and revenue generation through ecotourism, the potential rewards of prospecting do not seem to outweigh the risks, particularly if this decision opens the door to further exploration in protected areas.
Stephen Buchanan-Clarke is a political and security analyst with a focus on transnational security threats in Africa. He serves as head of Good Governance Africa’s human security and climate change programme. Sikhululekile Mashingaidze is lead researcher on human security and climate change at Good Governance Africa.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the