Average gasoline prices are down by roughly 27% from a year ago, but U.S. drivers will still be paying one of the highest prices for the Independence Day holiday on record.
Depending on the state you live in, prices will still vary widely. States that get their gasoline from refiners in Texas and Louisiana will see “lots of prices just below $3 a gallon,” Kloza said, while drivers in the Rocky Mountains and West Coast will see higher prices. Recent history, however, shows that gasoline prices are still “higher than they have been for eight of the past 10 [Fourth of July] holidays,” he told MarketWatch.
The Independence Day holiday, which De Haan says spans from Thursday or Friday through Wednesday of next week, is longer than we’ve seen in the past — but even then, he doesn’t expect the lower gasoline prices to lead to a spike in demand. DTN’s Milne said that midway through the year, U.S. gasoline demand is 1.5% higher than in 2022, yet gasoline demand trails the prepandemic rate “considerably,” down 4.7% and 4.6% compared with 2018 and 2019, respectively.
Oil refining capacity is concentrated along the U.S. Gulf Coast, said Milne. “Despite efforts to ‘harden’ these facilities in recent years, a direct hit by a major hurricane would disrupt refinery operations, potentially shutting a facility for an extended period of time,” he said. “Such an event would push gasoline prices higher.”