global oil supply dropped by 910,000 barrels per day to 100.9 million bpd in July from the previous month. Output from the OPEC+ bloc fell 1.2 million bpd over the same period to 50.7 million bpd with Saudi Arabia and Russia extending their combined 1.3-million-bpd cuts until the end of 2023.
Non-OPEC+ volumes rose by 310,000 bpd. Global oil output is projected to be 101.5 million bpd in 2023. In 2024, non-OPEC+ supply is projected to rise by 1.3 million bpd while OPEC+ is expected to add 160,000 bpd.is being driven by strong summer air travel, increased use in power generation and rising Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is projected to expand by 2.2 million bpd in 2023 to 102.2 million bpd. In 2024, the IEA sees further growth of one million bpd.
The IEA forecasts the OPEC+ production cuts will result in a supply deficit of 230,000 bpd through the fourth quarter of 2023. OPECa much larger deficit of 3.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter with the assumption of stronger Chinese demand. U.S. crude inventories actually rose by four million barrels last week, compared with a projected 1.9-million-barrel drop. That inventory increase caused oil prices to briefly dip before heading higher again.China consumes 15 per cent of global oil production annually, second only to the U.S. China’s GDP5.5 per cent year-over-year for the first half of 2023. In the second quarter of 2023, its GDP rose by 6.3 per cent , up from 4.5 per cent in the first quarter.