Sai Liang and colleagues sought to explore this conundrum by building an environmentally extended general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agent and input-output network covering 141 nations and 65 sectors, as defined by the Global Trade Analysis Project., found that whether technological progress tended to decrease or increase emissions depended on its place in the value chain.
Progress in upstream sectors tends to result in increased emissions overall, while progress in downstream sectors tends to lower global emissions. Technological progress in Russia's chemicals sector; China's gas sector; and China's, the United States', and South Korea's coal and petroleum sectors have significantly increased global emissions, whereas technological progress in China's sugar and construction sectors and the United States' dwelling and human health and social work sectors have significantly reduced global emissions.