US hotel loan defaults could rise on falling leisure stays, climbing costs

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U.S. hotel owners could see greater pressure on their ability to service the loans backing their properties, as a decline in leisure stays coupled with rising costs are expected to pinch their profits. In the second quarter, many hotel owners reported rates of leisure stay anywhere between 25%-35% above 2019 levels. Leisure travel will likely fall further in the event of an expected recession in the first half of 2024, the Fitch report noted.

- U.S. hotel owners could see greater pressure on their ability to service the loans backing their properties, as a decline in leisure stays coupled with rising costs are expected to pinch their profits.

But as the surge in travel after the pandemic wears off, demand is shifting away from pricey leisure stays and towards lower-rated group business travel, according to a Wednesday report from ratings agency Fitch. "If there’s a recession, hospitality is the first-in and the first-out of any downward trend," said Willy Walker, CEO of commercial real estate lender Walker & Dunlop.

According to a Thursday Moody's report, nine of the 19 commercial mortgage-backed security loans that liquidated in the second quarter of 2023 were hotel loans that initially defaulted in 2020, selling at a loss after the borrowers failed to work out a solution to avoid default.

 

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