Climate: Do we need to start planning for ex-hurricane season in Ireland?

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The Atlantic experienced a marine heatwave this year, which has helped to fuel the tropical storms for longer, enabling them to travel farther

Storm Agnes, the first named storm of the season, brought strong and disruptive winds in September with winds of 80km/h. Photographs: PA/Pacemaker/Provisionormon September 27th, with winds of 80km/h. (It’s just a coincidence that tropical storm Ophelia 2023 has the same name as ex-hurricaneAgnes caused flooding in many parts of the southwest and Co Cork, where dozens of homes were left without power.

it can act to weaken the Azores high, an area of high atmospheric pressure near the Azores in the Atlantic. A weaker Azores high results in a lower atmospheric pressure off the east coast of America, enabling tropical cyclone tracks to curve northwards. Tropical cyclones form fartherwhen the Atlantic is warmer close to the west coast of Africa, which increases the likelihood of the storms hitting Europe when they curve northwards.

So, are the tropical cyclone changes due to a changing climate? Research undertaken by Maynooth University climate change master’s student Randy Aird, who is based in Jamaica, found that since 1968 there has been a significant increase in the number of ex-tropical cyclones found in the latitude band 50-60 degrees north, in the Atlantic. Ireland lies between 51 and 55 degrees north.

Dr Samantha Hallam is a post-doctoral researcher at the Irish Climate Analysis Research Unit at Maynooth University. Research into tropical cyclones at the university is funded by the Marine Institute and Irish Aid as part of the Shared Ocean Programme, bringing together Irish and Caribbean researchersThere have been more road deaths so far this year than in all of 2022.

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