Analysis: China airfares rebound in potential rehearsal for global recovery

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Widely watched airfares in China are recovering to pre-pandemic levels as domestic tourists lead a patchy air travel recovery, scattering crumbs of hope to a shattered global travel sector.

FILE PHOTO: A China Eastern Airlines aircraft and Shanghai Airlines aircraft are seen in Hongqiao International Airport in Shanghai, following the coronavirus disease outbreak, China June 4, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo

Economy-class airfares for trips over the Labour Day holiday in early May have risen 11% compared with 2019 levels, says Ctrip, run by online travel giant Trip.com Group Ltd. Over the last year, Chinese domestic capacity had risen faster than demand, depressing airfares as carriers sought to fill as many seats as possible. A return to fare growth is seen as a final step in the recovery.

When travel restrictions are lifted, the European market should expect a “bloodbath” with low-cost airlines like Ryanair and Wizz Air competing to offer the lowest possible fares, CAPA Centre for Aviation Chairman Emeritus Peter Harbison said this month.In China, the Lunar New Year holiday is usually the busiest time for local airlines. But this year’s celebration was a wash-out for air travel, with capacity slashed and ticket prices plunging to five-year lows.

Investors have noticed. Stock prices for the three biggest Chinese airlines have recouped pandemic-related losses.

 

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Big difference. China is basically Covid free and back to normal. The US is still a Covid Basketcase

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