In its strategy note on Wednesday, the research house cited the disruptions in operations due to the movement controls to curb the Covid-19 pandemic as it remained the key source of uncertainty for the economic outlook.
It issued the report after spending the past week marketing its 2H21F economic and strategy outlook to around 220 investors where it shared its views regarding the weak 1H21 market performance and variables to watch for in 2H21. “The investors we met were keen to find out which companies are likely to post disappointing earnings in 2Q, our view on interest rates, potential political scenarios as well as policy options available to the government if Covid-19 cases do not reduce after vaccinating 70%-80% of the population,” it said.
As for the Covid-19, the research house said it remained the key source of uncertainty for the economic outlook, marked by fears over a shrinking fiscal space and policy options should GDP growth fall short of its forecasts of 3.9% in 2021F and 4.7% in 2022F.
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